I read Robin Berjon’s “Web 2024” and was kinda surprised how much our view of the future of the Web differs – though I agree with many things, specially with books turning into “apps” and TV-industry just doing it wrong. I think Robin was probably trying to drum up support for an exciting and somewhat positive vision, while sending a warning to others that if they don’t start to “get it”, they will go the way of the
This is my take on where we could be in 2024 and response to Robin’s write up. My vision is not pretty and isn’t what I want to happen, but what I feel will likely happen unless there is a radical shift in the way we build and standardize the platform.
Be warned, I’m a “the glass is half empty!” kinda guy.
Before presenting my history, some key things I fundamentally disagree with Robin about:
- The rise of single page apps just ain’t gonna happen. Single page apps are unicorns. I proved that statistically already and I don’t see it ever becoming main stream. If we fix page transitions (so to avoid the flash of unstyled content as you navigate from one page to another), then single page apps are unnecessary. Yeah, it’s that simple, Robin!:)
- JSON will die way before 2024. It’s a shitty standard and the lack of support for comments and trailing spaces makes it double shitty – it’s even worst than XML in that respect. It’s tremendously difficult to maintain and write. Something better will undoubtedly replace it way before 2024 (or browsers will start being more liberal about how they treat common errors leading to a new standard).
A history of the Web from 2014 to 2024
TC-39 felt the threat and tried to adapt (this time for real, having laughed off Dart into total irrelevance in 2013 despite Google’s fake/marketing-driven “standardization” of it in 2014 through ECMA); but the pace at which TC-39 standardized new features, and those features became available to the dependent native platforms was too slow. Unfortunately, in light of advances made in Swift and Rust and even crappy C++, JS just couldn’t hold its own in the app space. There was just too much legacy and browser “magic” baggage there: the inability to, for instance, not be able to use Object.observe() on host objects both confused and annoyed developers. And nobody got the whole “proxies” thing. Even the darling Node.js faded in favour of Go and other new emerging technologies.
Having Web Components was great, because it meant that HTML as a language was more or less done and developers were finally free to focus on creating their own elements that best represented the needs of their applications… except when they hit problems: mainly, this was to do with the preload scanner and other predictive magic the browser was trying to perform. Web components simply couldn’t explain the platform (or HTML elements) in the way its designers had hoped. The RICG had hit this problem early in 2012-2013 with
Demise of the W3C
An interesting side effect of “finishing” HTML in 2014 was the W3C’s slow demise into irrelevance. The writing had been on the wall for a long time, as the W3C continue to pursue an increase in member participation instead of providing technical leadership. It also couldn’t really compete with the WHATWG and other community driven projects to add new features to browsers. The W3C’s inability to adapt its process to cater for living standards left more and more participants dissolution and further pushed browser makers to do their standardization work at the WHATWG and new emerging community driven efforts. The W3C shifted focus and became a place to “standardize” formats and other mostly irrelevant XMLy and other research/academic projects (so sad right now!). The last hold-outs were the CSS Working Group, but it too eventually broke up as means of adding CSS features became available to developers (i.e., a form of Web Components, but for CSS). By 2020, the browser vendors had all but abandoned the W3C – those that remained, only stayed there for marketing reasons but didn’t contribute anything technically.
Bit more about Service Workers
As mentioned, the paralleled Moz/Google development of service workers brought a great deal of innovation to the web platform. We could finally create apps that reliably worked offline – and JQuery 4 and new versions of Angular made this a breeze to set up and use. The missing bit was having the ability to “install” a web app as one installs a real native application. Another great win was Mozilla’s and Google forcing Service Workers to be exclusively used over HTTPS. This really helped with pervasive monitoring (much to the annoyance of the NSA, CIA, and advertisers as they could not spy as freely as before on many new Web apps).
The WebOS killed our last chance at interop
Despite Mozilla’s and Google’s attempts to standardize a manifest format to allow installable web apps, it never really took off. Under the noses of everyone back in 2014, the web was already undergoing major fragmentation. A lot of people knew this, but chose to pretend that it was actually a good thing for the Web… and maybe it was in hindsight. It really started with Chrome OS, but was rapidly legitimized by growth and popularity of Firefox OS. By 2018, FireFox OS had taken a foothold in the lower end of the market capturing around 3% of global market share (the increase could have been greater, but very cheap Android phones put a lot of pressure on Mozilla which caused its growth to slow). By 2016, it was too late to turn back. Mozilla had invested very heavily into their proprietary platform (“Web” APIs, dev tools, docs, marketplace, etc.) and ditching all for lousy/half-baked W3C alternatives didn’t make economic sense (even if they were royalty free). Additionally, it would have been too expensive to deprecate and rewrite the FireFox OS platform to make use of standardized APIs… so they didn’t bother and just kept going with FireFox OS as it was, even if no other platform supported the APIs. But what the hell, it was the “open” alternative.
The fragmentation problems were two fold:
- The steady rise of the “embedded web view”.
- that there was a large and deliberate attempt to fragment the web into silos: Chrome OS, FireFoxOS, and Windows 8 apps.
Rise of Servo and the embedded web view
Embedded web views was something the clever people that started PhoneGap tuned into early on, and that Adobe bought early on realizing the potential of. Despite the goal of having PhoneGap become irrelevant (by pushing the Web to provide the functionality it provides) – it actually went the other way! PhoneGap/Cordova continued to grow in relevance and popularity. In 2014-2015, Mozilla had also jumped on board along with Google, Microsoft, etc. and the Cordova APIs became the de facto standard by 2016 without undergoing W3C standardization.
To get into this war for the embeddable engine, Mozilla ramped up development of Servo. Making Servo into an embeddable platform made it a great drop in replacement for WebKit (after loosing more contributors to Blink, Apple eventually forked WebKit and made an internal project in 2016). Servo’s embedding API and use of Rust means it quickly became a serious contender against WebKit. Tools like Phantom JS ditch WebKit. By 2019, Gecko was finally killed off and Servo was put in it’s place. The combination of Servo’s reliance on Rust and WebIDL proved to be a winner here. It meant that developers could quickly add new custom features to the platform and use a relatively easy to use language (Rust) to add new features to the browser. This made it even more attractive than Blink as an embeddable browser engine.
Lastly, as FireFox OS moved to using Servo instead of Gecko, it started to support native applications written in Rust. This followed the trend set in 2014, where Google started supporting Android (Java) applications in Chrome OS. By 2024, most apps are written in Rust and a lot make use of Servo as a WebView component. This is great for viewing web content – but most serious app development is now done with either Rust, Java, Foopy (it’s awesome, wait till you play with it!) or Swift. The Web remains mostly a publishing medium.
I got in early on the whole Foopy thing. Made a mint and retired to Portugal and I now have a small fig farm (mostly sell jams and cakes… it’s nice).